Aug 6th, 2021

 It has been 6 years since Harriet died. I still miss her everyday. I'm going to include a few pictures. 

My laptop crashed last weekend, so I am using backup and do not have all the pics. First pic is Harriet and our son Joe.

I am thankful that we got to spend 44 years together and Harriet was the best part of my life. I Love you Baby!

Sat. 3rd Oct.

 Our son Daniel is in town for a few days and he brought his girlfriend and her name is Sarah. They came over Friday morning and Daniel cooked breakfast.

Daniel has been driving long haul trucking for a year now. He drives about 600 miles a day. I did not get a pic of his little doggy. Very cute and I must say well behaved and obedient to commands. 

We have plans to show Sarah around. She is from Fort Smith Arkansas. I don't have a lot of pics yet, but I will have next month. Sarah has a son named Slade and he is about 3.5 years old. She works in what I guess we would call assisted living, taking care of the residence.

That is all I know for now. We just had Harriet's birthday. It is funny how we remember certain things every year. One of the things we did do today was to show Sarah family pics, lots with Harriet.

God bless you and Maranatha!

Frank

September 6th

Since I do not have a lot to do because of the virus restrictions. I thought I would give some Tech info that I have been working on over the past months.

If you are interested in AI and update on Tesla read on. Tesla's Mission Statement is "To accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy." For years the Legacy car company's have said, we are going to produce amazing EV's. Where are they? Everyone one they have produce to date has flopped because they do not even have the technology of the 2012 Tesla Model S and Tesla is now  7 years down the road tech speaking. In this Tech Age, would you rather buy a flip phone or a smart phone? In a word, that is your choice in cars, you want a dumb car or a smart car?

 

 13 Years Later

In 1900, would you have believed that everyone would transition to automobiles in 13 years? I don't think so, because horse drawn carts have been around for thousands of years, right? So where is your horse drawn cart today, you probably don't have one. It will take longer than 13 years to transition to EV vehicles, but I can tell you that it is happening. The Legacy car companies are in trouble because in the past they have rejected EV tech. GM was the first auto company to make a good EV that people really liked, but they collected all of them in 1999 and crushed them all, even though the Lessor's of these cars, wanted to purchase them. Bad call, GM 21 years later would have been the front runner in this tech. This car was the first in modern times to be designed from the ground up to run on Electricity. 

 "The General Motors EV1 was an electric car produced and leased by General Motors from 1996 to 1999. It was the first mass-produced and purpose-designed electric vehicle of the modern era from a major automaker and the first GM car designed to be an electric vehicle from the outset."  Wikipedia

Toyota came in and produced the best Hybrid to date. Excellent product in it's day, but Toyota has not advanced to full EV in 20 years.This left the EV market open. Enter Tesla in 2003. Tesla produced the Roadster and then in 2012 the first Tesla Model S cars were sold. To date, Sept. 2020, no Legacy car company has in production today, a car that meets the 2012 Tesla Model S stats. This shows the lead that Tesla has, which is called a Moat. The Moat is the separation or distance in advancements between the company that is the leader (First Initiator) in a field compared to the rest of the companies that are trying to catch up. Something I have learned in real life and that is if you are in a race and running as fast as you can, you will never catch the leader that is not only ahead of you, but pulling away.

Here is a pic of my 2018 Tesla Model 3. The software updates ( I got another one last evening ) continue to update my car, so I have the same technology in my car as does the 2020 model and will continue to have updates for the life of the car. This is huge! Usually people buy another car every 3 to 4 years. The average life span of a car in the United States is 11.5 years. Currently just in China there are over 150 start up company's that want to sell their own EV's, plus the legacy car company's. Even with all these new EV start ups in China, Tesla has a 21% market share in that country and 79% of all EV's sold this year in the United States.

 

 So here are the questions: "How far can you see in the future?" I am referring to Tech. Innovation. Approximately in the year 1900 we transformed from and Agricultural society into a Manufacturing. We starting changing into the Digital age approximately 2000. Nice round numbers. Asking the question again, do you think the people in 1900 saw the world changing from horse carriages to autos? It is the same today, the question is how long will it take in today's world to change from ICE to EV vehicles? If we are still around in 2030, I think the transition of EV's will be huge. 

Today EV's are are 2.2% of all vehicles sold in 2018, I just looked it up. They have projected that in 2030 half of all cars will be EV's. It will fun to see if that is correct.

That's pretty much it for this month. The waves have been pretty small and I have not been making surf videos, waiting for a larger swell.

 God bless you all!

Still miss my girl.

 

Maranatha,

Frank

PS. This is for my surfing friends. It will bring back some good times at 15th Street, surfing in the predawn and hearing the whine from my twin turbines. Praise the Lord!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7o8eIQLaQZveXYxcXBPancxSGM/view?usp=sharing 

 

 

 

August 6, 2020. Five years later

Harriet died 5 years ago today. The Bible says, "Absent from the body, present with the Lord"! Thank you Jesus!

I am thankful for my wife. We had 44 years together. I miss Harriet every day. Harriet is the best thing that has happen in my life, save salvation through Jesus Christ. If you have been following this blog for years you know how I feel about my wife.

Here are some pics to share with you.

I love you Honey, see you soon!

Maranatha!

7-6-20 Monday PERDICTIONS

On May 4, 2019 I posted my monthly blog. In that blog I did a 5000 mile review on my Tesla model 3. You'll find the link below. After my extremely optimistic view of Tesla's ability, I did some soul-searching. The question that kept coming up in my mind is, "Put your money where your mouth is". This is always the test when someone is trying to present something, are they personally invested in the product? So, I opened up a trading account and deposited all my liquid assets, almost all, I kept out working capital for my rentals. I purchased stocks twice in one week, the 1st time I just bought shares and then of course I said to myself Frank, don't be a wimp. I went all in with the average stock price at $225 per share. If you look at the stock chart for Tesla whose symbol is TSLA you will notice that the stock was going down after I bought it, all the way through summer, down to the $180 range. I made a decision at that time to be all in, regardless if the stock goes down to 0 or where ever. Below, you will see a one-year chart from today's date which is July 6, 2020. So it does not go back as far as when I purchased the stock in May 2019. But, you can see where this is going. My stock has quadrupled and now it's heading for 5 times original investment. There is a point to the story.

This is my May 2019 blog post if you want to check it out.

https://dudepastor.blogspot.com/2019/05/sat-may-4.html

There are a couple of reasons I did this investment. I missed when the Price Club became Cosco. Or when Amazon 1st started. But I was not going to miss this ride.

PREDICTIONS:

I have a friend Victoria who I've known for 35 years. We've talked about investing over the years and she is well invested in Apple which is a fantastic stock.  Tesla stock was in the $700 range in Feb. Then we had the virus outbreak and everything tanked you can see in the chart March and April were downers. Then Tesla came roaring back to new heights.

I told Victoria back in Feb. that I believe that Tesla is on track for the $1500 by the end of the year. Here are the hard predictions I'm making and if you read this blog you can come back in 5 years and you will know that either I was right or I was dead wrong. I'm projecting Tesla stock to be at $2500 in the Bear scenario and $5000 per share in the Bull scenario (best case scenario right) by the end of 2025.

This leads us to a dire case for what are called Legacy carmakers. They have billions of dollars invested in internal combustion machines factories (ICE vehicles). The cost for them to retool and start making these is again in the billions. Think about it, you own a company that makes and sells millions of gas guzzling cars per year and you make a lot of money, if you start making electric vehicles, technically you have a conflict of interest. On one case you're trying to sell electric cars that are more efficient by two thirds then it ice car, thereby undermining the sale of the gas cars which is your bread-and-butter. By the end of 2025 the 3 major legacy car companies in the United States, GM, Ford and Chrysler Fiat will either be bankrupt or in need of a bailout by the government.

Toyota is the only car company that stands a chance to survive. They have been making the Prius for 20 years and it was cutting edge 20 years ago. And it's a good car it's just that it's not committed to eliminating fossil fuel from the mix. Toyota is talking about making either hydrogen cars or electric cars, but it takes years to develop these vehicles and the cost again is in the billions for development and retooling.

There is a new term that I've learned since I started this adventure about 2 years ago. The term is called, "A Moat". The moat is the separation from a disruptive company that changes the way things have been done in the past. A hundred years ago that would be when the change from horse drawn buggies to the automobile.  Of course the Apple iPhone, is a prime example. The separation between Apple who is the leader and the next one in line in developing and producing smart cell phones was Samsung. The difference between their share of consumers is the moat. Uber and Lyft is another example. Tesla's moat is huge. Here we are in 2020 and there is no electric car in production today that has the equivalent technology and stats as the Tesla model S when it 1st came out in 2012. How can these companies catch up to Tesla? Or can they? I don't think they can, but if they were inclined to do so it would cost them billions of dollars and they would lose revenue of the income because they do not have the software technology in place. As Tesla advances it widens the Moat. In the United States three quarters of all electric vehicles sold are Tesla's, that is a huge market share.

I mentioned this in the previous blog post that Kodak was the 1st one to develop the digital camera, but they put it on the shelf because it would conflict with their sales of film for cameras. Where is Kodak today? They missed it. This same scenario is being played out again before us. Think about it, General Motors had a really good EV and what did they do with it? When people's leases were up on their EV, they had to return them even if people wanted to buy them and GM crushed all of them. I'm sure that they wish they would've proceeded with their EV program now, but it's too late, the same as with Kodak.

So these are my predictions and we will revisit them from year to year to see how it's going. I have just over 20K miles on my Model 3, cost so far as been $2.00 for windshield washer fluid. No oil changes, tuneups and so on. When you are ready to order your Tesla let me know.

7-5-20

Last Nov. Mark asked if I would officiate his wedding. Because of the restrictions imposed because of the virus, the wedding was held in the backyard of a friend from church. There were about a dozen people in attendance and it was a perfect day. Here are couple of pictures. Mark and Elizabeth, beautiful couple!

Last week I was able to make a surf video at Windansea. The waves and conditions were pretty good. Just not a whole lot going on. I did make a short 1:04 min video of my Tesla using the Summon feather at Olive Garden. I am including a link. I used 5 cameras so you can see everything going on. The main problem I see at this time with the Summon feather is that it is too sensitive detecting pedestrians. It is a safety issue and I understand why it has to be this sensitive, the problem is that if a pedestrian comes within the camera and sensors and the line of path the car is taking then the car will come to a stop and wait for the pedestrian to get out of the way. As long as the pedestrian keeps moving there's no problem. But, if they stop for any reason, then the car will wait until the path is cleared. I've chosen this particular spot because it requires my car to back out of the parking place in front of one restaurant and make two separate turns one left and one right to come and get me. You'll notice I'm standing on the curb. If I was to step off the curb as my car is approaching it would recognize me as a pedestrian and stop.

I'm trying to learn all the parameters that are used to make the all the Algorithm that control the AI ( Artificial Intelligence).

Copy and paste the link into your browser.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bQ_c174OT5EjkB9wFZ76qKdhsRz3HGZz/view?usp=sharing

I hope everyone had a good Fourth of July and God bless America!

Maranatha,
Frank

June 6th D Day

Quite a lot of activity over the past month. It's interesting to note that a month ago, business owners were arrested for keeping their businesses opened during the pandemic and trying to put food on the table for their families. A month later you have rioters and looters burning those same businesses potentially and vandalizing them and the police are standing by because the leadership for their municipality have instructed the police to only observe. My father who was born in Hungary during World War I, used to have a saying when people did things I described above. My father would say, "They should hang the looters from the closest light pole and leave them there for at least a week". Just saying......

 I've not made any surf videos for quite a few months because of the pandemic and the beaches were closed here in San Diego. I do monitor the surf cams every morning first thing along with the weather to see if there might be at bump in the swell. Unfortunately sometimes there are some waves and I have other things planned like getting my father's house painted. We grew up in this house my parents bought it in 1954 and it's always been white, but it used to have green trim. I didn't realize how shabby it looked until it had been power washed and painted. I'm currently working on replacing the top railing on the deck that you see in the picture. Due to sun damage and dry rot, they must be replaced and this time I'm going to coat them with a nice layer or two of resin.

 

About the most exciting thing this happened and I'm referring to personally not nationally, are the updates I get for my Tesla Model 3. I received a software update notice for my Tesla yesterday evening. Every time I get a software update it is like Christmas, what new feature am I getting this time? These software notices and upgrades come about every 3 to 4 weeks. Each time making the Tesla better than it was prior to the update. I did the current update which I won't go into it was very minor having to do with games and camera updates for my car. What I'd like to talk to you about is the previous update a month ago where my car now has autopilot capabilities on city streets and not just on the freeway.

I'm being totally transparent with you, when the driving on the streets autopilot software update came out last month I was not really very excited, it was way underwhelming. I did install the update, I tried it out for one day and then I disengaged it. You can do that with pretty much all the features. Then I started thinking about why they are making you confirm each signal light as you approach?

This is very similar to what they did with the autopilot for the freeway. You can still drive like this, the car will suggest a lane change but you have to verify that it's okay, thus confirming that indeed the lane change was safe and legal.   Each time you confirm that it was okay to change lanes, you are enforcing the fact that the computer is making intelligent decisions and what it does for your own peace of mind is to confirm that you can trust the car to make proper decisions and safe decisions.The Freeway AP (Auto Pilot) is so good, I just put in my destination and the car changes lanes, freeways all automatically without any input from me. I realize they are doing the exact same thing with stoplights.

Now when using AP on the streets, a little sign comes on the screen at 600 feet that says you're approaching a signal light intersection. When it gets down to about 400 feet from the signal light you will have to confirm either to stop or to continue. If the light is green you tap the Accelerator once and the car drives through the intersection. If you don't tap the Accelerator then the car stops right at the line and this is really cool. Now when the light turns green, you tap the Accelerator again and the car resumes driving at the posted speed limit.

I did have a couple of questions about this. What if you're sitting at a red light in autopilot and you tap the Accelerator will the car go through the light and the answer is no. I did it a number of times to test it. What if as you are approaching the signal light is green and you tap the accelerator pedal and all of a sudden the light turns yellow? Your car will come to the appropriate stop at the light. From the testing I've done this past month, my car knows if the light is red, yellow or green and responds accordingly. Later this year after the data has accumulated I'm talking about not just millions of miles but tens of millions of miles, then it will give a software update that will eliminate the need for any driver intervention at stop lights. It's clear that the car already knows when the light is red, green or yellow.

If you zoom in on the picture below, you will see an exact representation of the signal light configuration including the color of the lights whether it's red, yellow or green. Mr. Elon Musk has said that by the end of 2020 we will have feature complete self driving. Let me stop and explain if you look this up on the Internet you will see that there are five levels to achieve full self autonomous driving. Level I is the very basic and level 5 is full self driving no need for steering wheel or pedals. You can google this information if you're interested. I would say that we are right and about between level 2 and level 3 right now. Personally if we can get the level 4, that would be incredible. I like my steering wheel and pedals I want to keep them.

Unfortunately I cannot do a video and incorporated in the blog, or I don't think I can. That gives me something to research for next month's blog. If I can post videos or video links then I will give you an example of what it's like driving on the streets in signal lights as I described above. I just googled it, so next month I will add some video so you can see exactly what I am talking about, it is very cool!

Thank you Ken for the email reminder about my blog. I miss seeing my friends like Ken, Larry, Bob and the crew.  

God bless you all and stay safe, 

Frank

                                               I still Love you Baby! I always will.